This is a must win for the Spartans. Although I think they have the better team especially at home and that's not why I am taking them, but it will be why they will cover this spread. Michigan State could easily be 3-1. I'll give Wisconsin credit they beat the Spartans but in the losses against Central Mich and Notre Dame they should have won. Central Mich had a miracle win with an onside kick etc, while Cousins missed a wide open WR in the end zone late in the 4th that would have won the game. Although Michigan is 4-0 I fear that is not the truth of this team. They have played 4 home games with 100,000 fans behind them in each game. I expect some challenges for freshmen QB's in their first road test.
The offense has been explosive with play action behind Kirk Cousins, and when they need a run they pull in Keith Nichol who can run the ball for a change of pace. Mich State pulled in Nichol last week and he threw an interception so expect him to come in only to give the running game a boost which I think you will see a team more determined to get the running game started. The Spartans are ranked 87th in rushing offense but they are facing Michigan Defense that is suspect to the run and a balanced rushing attack will only wear them out by the 4th. Of course you can pass all day on Michigan's secondary as both Notre Dame and Indiana proved and I find it hard for them to stop the Spartans big weapons. Expect the Spartans to run early and often with their 3 headed attack, Winston, Caper, and Ray all with 20+ carries and for Nichol who is averaging 7.4 yards per carry to get some action as well.
This will be the game that the defense comes together a bit. They have an aggressive front four that can stop the run, and that will be their main goal on Saturday when they face Michigan's 8th ranked rushing attack. Mich State has allowed just 113.5 yards on the ground ranked 44th. However, I think they are better than that, and expect them to put an extra guy up to stop Michigan's most talented players in Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor. This will force a major advantage for the Spartans. Tate Forcier has been extremely impressive over the first 4 games. I really gave the guy credit throwing the TD pass last week when his arm was like hanging off. He was in pain which was clear and I think he will get hit on Saturday putting him in some pain. That leads to a bunch of questions once Denard Robinson comes in the other freshmen QB. He's kind of like the Spartan's Keith Nichol. He looks to run first, and does not have the accuracy Forcier has. Regardless he's going to get some playing time and that could be the key to the game, because Forcier could surely lead the Wolverines in any comeback threat. The overall confidence should be up for Michigan State's defense facing two freshmen QB's who have yet to play a road game in college football. After opening up their first 4 games at home at the big house now they will be tested in a tough environment.
This year teams (Michigan) losing ATS by more than 6 points as a favorite now facing a conference opponent are 5-17-1 ATS with a -10 point margin of victory.
